Key concept
Break-even COP
The efficiency threshold a heat pump must exceed to beat gas on fuel cost
Formula
(Elec ¢/kWh ÷ Gas ¢/kWhthermal) × AFUE
All gas prices from EIA 2024 annual actuals — residential and commercial sectors
Interpretation
Lower = better
Modern cold-climate ai source heat pumps achieve COP 2.5–4.5× depending on temperature. Ground source heat pumps may achieve COP 3-6, but cost more to install.
Annual Fuel Use Efficiency (AFUE) adjustment
Efficiency of furnace
An 80% furnace gives gas a ~20% efficiency penalty vs. a 100% hypothetical
How to read this: If your state's break-even COP is 3.2×, a heat pump that achieves COP 3.2 or higher saves money on fuel vs. the gas system assumed. Modern cold-climate heat pumps (e.g. Mitsubishi Hyper Heat, Bosch IDS) achieve COP 3–4.5 at moderate temperatures. Industrial note: The AFUE adjustment applies to furnaces/boilers; for industrial process heat applications the relevant comparison is boiler efficiency (typically 80–85%), so the 80% AFUE setting is most applicable for industrial. Industrial air source heat pump economics are particularly sensitive to process temperature requirements — high-temperature applications (>150°C) remain technically challenging and will have lower coefficient of performance. Industrial waste heat recovery can result in much higher COP. Limitations: this plot uses 2024 statewide average electricity and gas prices. Actual prices vary by utility and by year. The plot does not capture changes in electricity or gas prices by season/month. Both prices may be higher in winter than on average. This analysis does not account for climate zone and average COP of heat pumps in different regions. Compare expected seasonal coefficient of performance in your climate zone to the break-even COP here to determine if a heat pump may be more affordable than gas heating.